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本文研究了在小孩和成人两类人群中具有交叉感染且带有出生死亡的SEIR手足口病模型。该模型包括易感者,潜伏者(感染手足口病毒但没有表现出症状),患病者和恢复者并且考虑了潜伏者对易感者具有感染力。文中估计了中国手足口病的基本再生数,并证明了无病平衡点的全局稳定性。而数值上证明了正平衡点的存在性.最后对模型进行了数值模拟以及对疾病做出了预测,得出结论:有必要采取措施来控制手足口病的传播。
This article studies a SEIR hand, foot and mouth disease model with cross-infection and birth to death in both children and adults. The model includes susceptible, latent (infected with hand-foot-mouth virus but no symptoms), affected and recovered, and considered that latent persons are susceptible to susceptible. The article estimated the basic number of reproduction of HFMD in China and proved the global stability of disease-free equilibrium. And numerically proved the existence of positive equilibrium point.Finally, the model was numerically simulated and the disease was predicted, and concluded that it is necessary to take measures to control the spread of HFMD.