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目的应用数理模型预测福建省肺结核登记发病率,为结核病控制工作提供科学依据。方法分析2008~2012年福建省结核病防治机构肺结核患者发现任务完成情况,并运用灰色理论建立灰色模型GM(1,1),预测未来几年肺结核的登记发病率。结果 5年来,全省初治涂阳肺结核患者发现任务均超额完成每年省卫生厅下达的发现任务,但复治涂阳患者、初治涂阴患者和活动性肺结核患者发现任务除2010年完成外,其余均未达到任务要求;2008~2012年,复治涂阳患者发现任务完成率分别为56.67%、85.51%、>100.00%、81.67%和93.89%,初治涂阴患者发现任务完成率分别为82.95%、95.83%、>100.00%、90.72%和88.25%,活动性肺结核患者发现任务完成率分别为90.06%、98.29%、>100.00%、95.14%和94.77%。应用灰色数列模型GM(1,1)预测2013~2015年福建省初治涂阳肺结核患者登记发病率分别为20.16/10万、18.05/10万和16.17/10万,活动性肺结核患者登记发病率分别为46.94/10万、43.48/10万和40.27/10万。经统计分析2008年~2009年实际监测登记的初治涂阳和活动性肺结核患者登记发病率与该测算的预测值、省卫生厅下达的年度发现任务指标之间的差距无明显区别(P>0.05)。结论建立的灰色数列模型GM(1,1)模型对活动性肺结核患者进行预测,经检验拟合优度好,可外推预测,可以为疾病预防控制绩效考核方案更好地制定准确、科学的任务指标提供参考。
Objective To predict the incidence of tuberculosis registration in Fujian Province by using mathematical models to provide a scientific basis for tuberculosis control. Methods To analyze the status of discoveries of tuberculosis patients in Fujian TB Hospital from 2008 to 2012 and to establish a gray model GM (1,1) using gray theory to predict the incidence of tuberculosis in the next few years. Results In the past five years, the newly diagnosed smear-positive pulmonary TB patients in the province have over-fulfilled the tasks assigned by the Provincial Health Department every year. However, patients with re-smear smear-positive smears and patients with active smear-negative tuberculosis and active pulmonary tuberculosis found that the tasks were completed except in 2010 , The rest did not meet the task requirements; 2008 ~ 2012, Fuzhi smear-positive patients found that the task completion rates were 56.67%, 85.51%,> 100.00%, 81.67% and 93.89%, respectively, Were 82.95%, 95.83%,> 100.00%, 90.72% and 88.25% respectively. The completion rates of patients with active pulmonary tuberculosis were 90.06%, 98.29%,> 100.00%, 95.14% and 94.77% respectively. The incidence of newly diagnosed smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Fujian Province from 2013 to 2015 was estimated to be 20.16 / 100 000, 18.05 / 100 000 and 16.17 / 100 000 respectively by using the gray sequence model GM (1,1). The incidence of active tuberculosis registration Respectively 46.94 / 100000, 43.48 / 100000 and 40.27 / 100000. According to statistical analysis, there was no significant difference between the registered incidence of newly diagnosed smear-positive and active pulmonary tuberculosis registered in 2008 ~ 2009 and the predicted value of the survey, and the annual discovery task index issued by the provincial health department (P> 0.05). Conclusions The gray model GM (1,1) model was established to predict patients with active pulmonary tuberculosis. The goodness of fit and good extrapolation can be extrapolated to predict the performance of the disease prevention and control program, so as to formulate an accurate and scientific Task indicators provide a reference.