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以道孚、绰斯甲、足木足水文站1960~2000年的同步天然年径流量系列为基础,应用Copula方法构造了南水北调西线一期工程调水河流之间的径流联合分布模型,具体分析了鲜水河、绰斯甲河、足木足河这3条调水河流之间实施补偿调度的概率。结果表明:鲜水河与足木足河之间实施补偿调度的可能性最大,绰斯甲河与足木足河之间实施补偿调度的可能性次之,鲜水河与绰斯甲河之间实施补偿调度的可能性最小,其概率分别为43.74%、38.84%和25.82%。
Based on the synoptic natural annual runoff series of Daofu, Siu Si Jia and Zuomuzu Hydrological stations from 1960 to 2000, a co-ordinated runoff model of runoff between the diversion routes of the first phase of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project The probability of implementation of the compensation schedule between the three water transfer rivers of Xianshuihe, Chossi-ta River and Zuqimuhe river was analyzed. The results show that there is a high possibility of implementation of compensation and dispatch between Xianshuihe and Zuomuzuhe, and secondarily, The possibility of implementing the compensation schedule is the smallest, with the probability of 43.74%, 38.84% and 25.82% respectively.