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依据黄河上游古树年轮、旱涝等级和相邻河流径流量等资料及其与兰州站汛期天然径流量的关系,重建522年径流量序列,分析了其历史变化特点和未来趋势。结果表明:(1)重建序列与现有序列具有较好的一致性;(2)近522年径流量变化具有较明显的阶段性、周期性特点,大致经历了8个枯水段和7个丰水段;(3)未来46年平均的汛期径流量为275亿m3左右,较常年偏多约4%,期间可分为平水、丰水、偏枯和偏丰的4个时段。
Based on the data of annual rings, droughts and floods and the runoff of adjacent rivers in the upper reaches of the Yellow River and their relationship with the natural runoff in the flood season of Lanzhou Station, the runoff series of 522 years are reconstructed, and their historical changes and future trends are analyzed. The results show that: (1) The reconstructed sequences are in good agreement with the existing sequences; (2) The runoff changes in the recent 522 years have obvious phases and periodic characteristics, which generally experience 8 dry periods and 7 (3) The average flood season runoff in the next 46 years is about 27.5 billion m3, about 4% more than in the normal years. There are four periods of flat water, abundant water, partial dry and over-abundance.