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为定量分析沉船碍航性,处理沉船碍航性评价过程中定性概念的不确定性,结合云模型和Delphi,建立沉船碍航性综合评价云模型。通过对历史事故的统计分析,识别出决定沉船碍航性的要素。利用云模型最大限度地保留了整个沉船碍航性评价过程中的随机性和模糊性,对各个评价因子和评价标准进行云变换得到概念云模型,采用云模型和Delphi对评价因子赋权,依次对各级评价因子云模型进行云跃升运算得到沉船碍航性综合评价云模型。以我国福州水域部分历史沉船为例进行验证,结果表明,应用该模型能有效地评价出沉船碍航性,且得出的评价结论与历史评价结论一致。
In order to quantitatively analyze the obstruction of the shipwreck and deal with the uncertainty of the qualitative concept during the assessment of the obstructing shipwreck, a comprehensive cloud model for assessing the shipwreck obstruction is established based on the cloud model and Delphi. Through the statistical analysis of historical accidents, identify the elements that determine the obstruction of shipwreck. Cloud model is used to maximize the randomness and fuzziness of the entire shipwreck evaluation process. The cloud model and Delphi are used to evaluate the evaluation factors. The cloud model of all factors at all levels of cloud computing jumped operation to get the comprehensive evaluation of the shipwreck cloud model. Taking the part of the history shipwreck in the Fuzhou waters of our country as an example, the results show that the model can effectively evaluate the obstruction of shipwreck, and the conclusion of the evaluation is consistent with the historical evaluation.