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美中持续的贸易逆差使人民币遭受了巨大的升值压力。1985年至2009年月度数据的计量结果表明,美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率之间不存在长期稳定的协整关系,但2005年7月汇改之后两者之间的协整关系开始出现,格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明,中美贸易差额会引起人民币兑美元汇率的变化,但人民币汇率的变化却不会引起中美贸易差额的变化,因此人民币汇率仍然并非导致中美贸易差额的真正原因。除此之外,对美中商品分类贸易顺差和逆差的进一步分析显示,造成美中贸易逆差的真正原因是中国在劳动密集型和资源易耗性产业上所发挥的比较优势,而美国在土地密集型等产业上的顺差则表明美国可以通过发挥其在土地及高新技术等产业上的比较优势来缩减美中贸易逆差。
The ongoing trade deficit between the United States and China has put the yuan under tremendous upward pressure. The measurement results of the monthly data from 1985 to 2009 show that there is no long-term and stable co-integration relationship between the U.S.-China trade deficit and the RMB exchange rate. However, after the reform in July 2005, the co-integration relationship between the two started to emerge. The result of the Rankine causality test shows that the trade gap between China and the United States will cause the exchange rate of RMB to the US dollar to change. However, the change of RMB exchange rate will not cause the change of trade balance between China and the United States. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate is still not the real cause of the trade gap between China and the United States the reason. In addition, a further analysis of the trade surplus and deficit in the US-China commodity classification shows that the real reason for the U.S.-China trade deficit is the comparative advantage that China exerts in labor-intensive and resource-intensive industries, The industry-wide surplus shows that the United States can reduce the U.S.-China trade deficit by giving play to its comparative advantages in such industries as land and high-tech industries.