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1997年1~4月,新疆伽师发生包含7次6级以上地震的强震群,为板内地震所罕见。伽师强震群发生在相对稳定的塔里木盆地中,震区未发现地表断裂,深部构造不甚清楚。新疆地震局先后3次对伽师地震的强余震和后续强震作了成功的临震(1周内)预报。当地政府采取有力措施,大大减少了人员伤亡,取得了显著的社会效益和经济效益。本文介绍了强震群概况和主要预报过程,总结了临震预报的科学依据,同时指明:伽师强震群的发生给我们提出了一些重要的、需要深入研究的科学问题。伽师地震预报实践又一次启示我们,必须正视地震孕育系统的复杂性,重视地震预报中的方法论和思维及行为问题。
From January to April 1997, a strong earthquake swarm, including seven earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above, occurred in Jiashi, Xinjiang, which is rare for on-the-board earthquakes. The Jiashi strong earthquake swarm occurred in the relatively stable Tarim Basin. The surface rupture was not found in the earthquake zone, and the deep structure was not clear. The Xinjiang Seismological Bureau made three successful predictions (within 1 week) on the strong aftershocks and subsequent strong earthquakes of the Jiashi earthquake. The local government took effective measures to greatly reduce the casualties and achieved remarkable social and economic benefits. This paper introduces the general situation of strong earthquake swarm and the main forecasting process, summarizes the scientific basis of the earthquake prediction, and points out that the occurrence of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm brings us some important scientific issues that need further study. Jiashi earthquake prediction practice once again enlighten us, we must face the complexity of earthquake breeding system, emphasis on earthquake prediction methodology and thinking and behavior problems.