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中国经济的持续稳定发展使得国内石油产量难以满足发展需要,石油对外依存度越来越高。基于广义翁氏模型对世界石油产量及其供应格局进行预测分析,结果显示:世界常规石油产量高峰大约出现在2021年,峰值产量约为41.9×108t;北美、中南美洲、欧洲、中东、非洲和亚太地区的产量峰值分别是7.3×108t、3.9×108t、8.5×108t、16.1×108t、5.1×108t和3.8×108t;在未来的世界石油供应格局中,石油供应将越来越依赖中东地区,中南美洲和非洲地区的石油产量在未来30年内大体保持稳定,亚太将成为未来石油供需失衡最严重地区,北美和欧洲地区石油产量占全球的比重将持续下降。中国在加强与传统石油大国联系的同时,应积极关注世界石油供应格局变化,进一步拓展与石油生产新兴地区的合作和联系。
The steady and steady development of China’s economy makes it difficult to meet the development needs of domestic oil production and its dependence on foreign countries is getting higher and higher. Based on the generalized Weng model, the world oil production and its supply pattern are predicted and analyzed. The results show that the world peak of conventional oil production occurs around 2021 and the peak output is about 41.9 × 108t. North America, Central and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and The peak output of the Asia-Pacific region is 7.3 × 108t, 3.9 × 108t, 8.5 × 108t, 16.1 × 108t, 5.1 × 108t and 3.8 × 108t respectively. In the future world oil supply pattern, oil supply will increasingly rely on the Middle East, Central and South American and African oil production will generally remain stable over the next 30 years, with Asia Pacific becoming the worst oil supply and demand imbalance in the future and North America and Europe will continue to see their share of global oil production declining. While strengthening ties with the traditional petroleum powers, China should pay close attention to changes in the world oil supply pattern and further expand cooperation and contacts with emerging oil-producing regions.