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作为国家的信息基础设施,宽带在支撑经济发展方式转变等方面的重要性日益凸显,评估宽带对我国经济增长的贡献及如何推进宽带发展亟待深入研究。本文基于用户宽带接入的离散选择行为,构建起宽带普及的微观模型,通过与经济增长方程联立,刻画宽带普及与经济增长之间的双向关系。利用我国2004~2009年的省际面板数据,本研究发现宽带普及对经济增长的贡献整体提高,但省际差异分化明显;当前制约我国宽带普及的因素依次是上网技能、宽带资费、经济增长、产业结构、计算机拥有量等。实证结果为落实“宽带中国”战略提供了有力依据和政策支持。
As the information infrastructure of our country, the importance of broadband in supporting the transformation of the mode of economic development has become increasingly prominent. To assess the contribution of broadband to the economic growth of our country and how to promote the development of broadband needs to be further studied. Based on the discrete selection behavior of users’ broadband access, this paper constructs a micro-model of universal broadband and establishes a two-way relationship between broadband penetration and economic growth through the simultaneous establishment of the economic growth equation. Using the panel data of provinces from 2004 to 2009 in our country, this study found that the contribution of broadband penetration to economic growth as a whole increased significantly, but the discrepancy between provinces was obvious. The current factors that restrict the popularization of broadband in our country are Internet access skills, broadband tariffs, economic growth, Industrial structure, computer ownership and so on. The empirical results provide a strong basis and policy support for the implementation of the “Broadband China” strategy.