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以洪灾威胁严重的蓄滞洪区为研究背景,从系统论角度构建了洪灾风险评价指标体系。以海河流域重点蓄滞洪区之一——大黄堡洼为研究区,将突变理论评价法和模糊综合评价法应用于洪灾风险综合评价中,二者评价结果大体相同,并与相关数据显示的实际情况基本吻合,验证了突变理论方法用于洪灾风险评价的可靠性。突变评价法根据目标在归一公式本身中的内在矛盾地位和机制确定指标重要程度,而无需计算权重,减少了主观人为性,且计算简单,便于应用,为洪灾风险评价提供了一个新的途径。
Taking the flood storage and detention area with serious flood threat as the research background, a flood risk assessment index system is constructed from the perspective of system theory. Taking the Huangpu depression, one of the key flood storage and detention areas in the Haihe River Basin, as the research area, the catastrophe theory evaluation and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are applied to the comprehensive assessment of flood risk. The evaluation results of the two are roughly the same and are consistent with the actual data The results show that the catastrophe theory method is applied to the reliability of flood risk assessment. Catastrophe evaluation method determines the importance of indicators according to their inherent contradictory status and mechanism in the normal formula itself without calculating the weight and reducing the subjective humanity, and is simple to calculate and easy to apply, providing a new way for flood risk assessment .