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简要回顾了我国地震预报的发展过程,并着重对最近10年(尤其是90年代以来)的地震预报研究进展作了较系统的阐述.主要分为:(1)大地震震源区地壳细结构和介质物性的探测研究;(2)地震和前兆数字化观测技术的研制;(3)地震短临预报方法及其判据、指标的研究;(4)地震序列类型和震后趋势早期应用判断方法及其指标的研究;(5)华北北部地震短临预报方法、前兆综合解释模型与短临预报综合判别系统的研究;(6)地震预报新技术、新方法的探索;(7)地震中长期预报研究及我国近期(10年左右尺度)地震重点监视防御区的确定;(8)板内地震孕育发生的物理模型及前兆场物理解释的探索研究.最后还对我国地震预报的未来发展进行了展望.
A brief review of the development of earthquake prediction in China is given, and the progress of earthquake prediction in the recent 10 years (especially since the 1990s) is systematically expounded. It is mainly divided into: (1) exploration and research on crustal fine structure and medium physical properties in the focal area of major earthquakes; (2) development of digital observation technology for earthquakes and precursors; (3) short-term earthquake prediction methods and their criteria and indicators; (4) Study on early application of seismic sequence types and post-earthquake trending methods and their indicators; (5) Study on the method of short-term earthquake prediction in the north of North China, synthetic model of precursors comprehensive interpretation and short-term prediction; (6) New technologies and new methods; (7) the study of medium and long-term prediction of earthquakes and the determination of key surveillance and defense areas for earthquakes in China in recent years (about 10 years); (8) the physical model of the in-board earthquakes and the physical interpretation of precursory fields Explore research. Finally, the future development of earthquake prediction in China is also prospected.