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降雨-库水联合作用影响着三峡库区滑坡,而降雨、库水分别对滑坡演化的贡献及作用规律迄今尚不明确.以库区树坪滑坡和八字门滑坡为例,通过分析降雨和库水位资料,采用变系数回归模型,对滑坡位移进行预测.实验结果表明:经过改进的变系数回归模型方法不仅比传统的线性回归模型、自回归积分滑动平均模型、支持向量机模型方法具有更高的预测精度,而且能定量地给出各影响因素对滑坡位移的贡献.
The combined action of rainfall and reservoir water affects the landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area, but the contribution and action law of rainfall and reservoir water to the landslide evolution are not yet clear. Taking the Shuping landslide and Bazimen landslide as examples, Water level data and variable coefficient regression model to predict landslide displacement.The experimental results show that the improved variable coefficient regression model not only has higher performance than the traditional linear regression model, autoregressive integral moving average model and support vector machine model The prediction accuracy of the landslide displacement can be quantitatively given.