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本文基于EBM-Luenberger分析模型,构建非参数生产前沿分析框架,分解1995-2014年中国经济增长,剖析效率改善的贡献,以评估经济发展方式转型效果。研究显示:虽然要素投入仍是近20年中国经济发展的主要动因,但是效率改善对经济发展的贡献在不断提高,从2012年起中国已经进入粗放型发展向质量型发展转变的过渡期;技术进步是效率改善的主要推动力;东部地区转型效果较好,发展方式即将实现向质量型的转变,中部、西部地区转型速度最快;省际层面中,2014年上海等5个省市经济发展实现了从粗放型向质量型的转变,贵州等9个省区仍属于粗放型发展,安徽等16个省市处于从粗放型到质量型的过渡期。基于研究成果,本文针对中国经济发展方式转型中的重点和难点,从如何处理发展方式转型和经济发展的关系,如何长久地保持效率改善对经济发展的贡献提出了政策建议。
Based on the EBM-Luenberger analysis model, this paper constructs a frontier analytical framework for nonparametric production, decomposes China’s economic growth from 1995 to 2014, and analyzes the contribution of the improvement in efficiency so as to evaluate the effect of economic development transformation. The research shows that although input of factors is still the main driving force of China’s economic development in recent 20 years, the contribution of efficiency improvement to economic development is constantly improving. Since 2012, China has entered a transition period from extensive development to quality-oriented development. Technology Progress is the main driving force for efficiency improvement; the transformation in the eastern region is relatively effective, the development mode is about to shift from quality to quality, the transition is fastest in the central and western regions; among the inter-provincial levels, the economic development in five provinces and municipalities such as Shanghai in 2014 The transformation from extensive mode to mass mode was realized. Nine provinces and autonomous regions such as Guizhou still belonged to extensive development. 16 provinces and cities such as Anhui were in a transition from extensive mode to mass mode. Based on the research results, this paper addresses the key and difficult points in the transformation of China’s economic development mode, and puts forward policy suggestions on how to deal with the relationship between the transformation of development mode and economic development and how to maintain the efficiency and improve the contribution to economic development for a long time.