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学界曾普遍达成共识,对熨平资本市场波动而言,固定汇率制度表现更优;而浮动汇率制度更有利于商品市场层面的波动调整。然而在亚洲、俄罗斯、巴西及阿根廷经历金融危机后,对不同汇率制度属性的研究重新兴起。伴随着30多年的对外开放,我国汇率制度实质上经历了4个阶段的演变。基于国内外学者的相关研究,作者分别应用面板数据分析和Probit模型对各种汇率制度的表现和我国政府的汇率选择行为展开实证研究。我们认为,对人民币汇率制度选择的研究首先应建立在深入考察中国宏观经济现实的基础之上,中国的汇率制度改革应与宏观经济运行的基本面相契合。
The academic community has generally reached a consensus that the fixed exchange rate system will perform better when it comes to smoothing capital market volatility while the floating exchange rate system will be more conducive to the adjustment of volatility at the commodity market level. However, in Asia, after Russia, Brazil and Argentina experienced the financial crisis, the research on the properties of different exchange rate regimes reemerged. With 30 years of opening to the outside world, China’s exchange rate system has undergone four stages of evolution in essence. Based on the domestic and foreign scholars’ relevant research, the author uses panel data analysis and Probit model respectively to conduct empirical research on the performance of various exchange rate regimes and the exchange rate selection behavior of our government. In our opinion, the research on the choice of RMB exchange rate system should first be based on an in-depth study of the macro-economic reality in China. The reform of China’s exchange rate system should be in line with the fundamentals of macro-economic operation.