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针对概念设计阶段干线客机相关信息难以获取的特点,利用整机价格与性能参数的相关性和利用灰关联分析筛选出了影响飞机价格的关键性能参数;通过确定排序基准序列,建立了基于特征序列内部空穴点预测的I-GM(0,N)模型.在案例分析中利用该模型对我国X型新研干线客机的目录价格进行预测,并对各现役干线客机的目录价格进行模拟.误差分析和精度检验证明模型的模拟结果较好,并可以预见模型对我国X型客机的目录价格能够进行较为准确的预测,是一种概念设计阶段较为实用的干线客机价格预测方法.
In view of the characteristic that the relevant information of the mainline passenger aircraft is hard to obtain during the conceptual design phase, the key performance parameters that affect the price of the aircraft are screened by using the correlation between the whole price and the performance parameters and the gray relational analysis. By establishing the sequencing reference sequence, I-GM (0, N) model of internal hole-point prediction is used to predict the catalog price of China’s X-type new mainline passenger aircraft in the case analysis and to simulate the catalog price of each active mainline passenger aircraft. The analysis and the precision test prove that the simulation result of the model is good and can foresee that the model can predict the catalog price of X-type passenger plane in China more accurately. So it is a practical way to predict the price of mainline passenger aircraft in the conceptual design stage.