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将Moore结构变动指数引入我国需求结构中,测度出我国需求结构变动情况,并利用HP滤波的方法分离出经济波动的成分,最后对我国需求结构变动与经济波动之间的关系进行了Granger因果检验。研究发现:经济波动是经济结构变动的Granger原因,在短期,需求结构变动不是经济波动的Granger原因。然而在中长期某时点需求结构变动是经济波动的Granger原因。这说明我国需求结构变动受到了经济发展的影响,而需求结构变动不是我国经济波动的主要冲击来源。
The Moore structure change index is introduced into China’s demand structure to measure the change of China’s demand structure and the HP filter method is used to separate the components of economic fluctuations. Finally, Granger causality test is conducted on the relationship between the demand structure change and economic fluctuation in China. . The study finds that economic fluctuation is the Granger cause of economic structure change. In the short run, the demand structure change is not the Granger cause of economic fluctuation. However, the change in demand structure at some point in the medium and long term is the Granger cause of economic fluctuations. This shows that the changes in China’s demand structure have been affected by economic development. The change in the demand structure is not the main source of the economic fluctuations in our country.