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最近由国际民防地震预报委员会(ICEF)出版的报告《可操作的地震预报:认知状态与应用指南》预先假定迄今还没有哪一种大地震的短期预测方法已被证明是可靠且有效的。这已经不再正确了。通过使用剪切波分裂来监测震源区周围岩体内的应力积累可以确定性地由应力预报地震。这种对流体—岩石的新理解意味着ICEF报告中的建议不再合适。这篇评论是对这种新认识的综述,并建议在意大利今后开展可操作地震预报的方法是安装一个或多个可控源三孔应力监测点并利用剪切波分裂方法监测应力的积累,用应力方法预报意大利所有的破坏性(M≥5)地震。
A recent report by the International Commission on Civil Defense Earthquake Prediction (ICEF), “Operational Earthquake Prediction: A State of Cognition and Application Guide” presupposes that to date no short-term prediction method for large earthquakes has proven to be reliable and effective . This is no longer correct. Earthquakes can be predictively predicted by stress shear stress using shear-wave splitting to monitor the accumulation of stress within the rock mass surrounding the source area. This new understanding of fluid-rock means that the recommendations in the ICEF report are no longer adequate. This commentary is a synthesis of this new understanding and suggests that a method of operational earthquakes prediction in Italy in the future would be to install one or more controllable source three-hole stress monitoring points and use shear-wave splitting methods to monitor stress accumulation, Stressful prediction of all destructive (M ≥ 5) earthquakes in Italy.