论文部分内容阅读
采用统计方法,分析了热带太平洋SSTA与北极海冰之间的联系。结果表明:北极海冰从上世纪80年代初由正距平转换为负距平,以-1.5%速率/10a快速消融。尽管冬季海冰也出现减少趋势,但最大海冰减少出现在夏秋季,9月为1年中海冰减少最快的月份。相关分析发现,北极海冰的快速减少与热带太平洋海温变化存在密切联系,赤道中西部SSTA与北极海冰的关系更明显。Nio4区域SSTA变化与北极海冰存在时滞3a左右的最佳相关,6~10月SSTA对北极海冰影响最显著。通过分析,初步认为Nio4区域SSTA主要通过影响北半球中纬度气压场和经向环流场,进而影响AO变化,最终对北极海冰产生影响。
Using statistical methods, the link between SSTAs in the tropical Pacific Ocean and Arctic sea ice is analyzed. The results show that the Arctic sea ice changed from positive anomaly to negative anomaly in the early 1980s and rapidly ablated at -1.5% rate / decade. Although the sea ice in winter also showed a decreasing trend, the maximum sea ice decreased in summer and autumn, while September was the fastest one in the year. The correlation analysis shows that the rapid decrease of Arctic sea ice is closely related to the change of SSTA in tropical Pacific Ocean, and the relationship between SSTA and Arctic sea ice in the central and western equatorial regions is more obvious. The SSTA change in the Nio4 region has the best correlation with the Arctic sea ice with a time lag of about 3a, and the SSTA from June to October has the most significant impact on Arctic sea ice. Through analysis, it is preliminarily believed that the SSTA in the Nio4 region mainly affects the Arctic sea ice by influencing the atmospheric pressure field and the meridional circulation field in the midlatitude of the northern hemisphere, which will in turn affect the AO variation.