本文以矩阵模型为基础，利用林分进界生长、林分直径净生长量及枯损量的资料，拟合了祁连山青海云杉林动态系统模型，并模拟了以１０％采伐强度抚育下，不同抚育间隔期的林分动态。从求解结果中得出现实青海云杉林在经过一定强度的抚育采伐后，林分将趋向于一种稳定结构，在１０％的抚育强度下，择伐周期以１５年为宜，同时还得出各种抚育方案下的保留蓄积出材量等初步结论。 Based on the matrix model, the dynamic model of Picea crassifolia forest in Qilian Mountains was fitted using the data of the growth of stand boundary, the net growth of stand diameter and the amount of wilt. Stand Dynamics at Different Tending Interval. From the results of the solution, we found that after a certain degree of tending and cutting, the stand of Qinghai spruce forest will tend to be a stable structure. Under the 10% tending strength, the selective cutting cycle should be 15 years, A variety of tending plan to retain the amount of reserves and other preliminary conclusions.