2005年 ,在高油价和加息等因素的影响下 ,世界经济将出现适度回调 ,但世界经济仍将保持较快的增长速度 ,能源、原材料等初级产品价格上涨推动全球通胀回升 ,各国宏观政策趋于收紧 ,新一轮世贸谈判有望取得突破 ,国际资本流动趋于活跃 ,国际油价有望缓慢回落。一、世界经济适度 In 2005, under the influence of high oil prices and interest rate hikes, the world economy will see a modest correction. However, the world economy will maintain a relatively rapid growth rate. The rise in the prices of primary products such as energy and raw materials will boost global inflation and the macroeconomic policies of all countries Tightening tends to lead to a breakthrough in the new round of WTO negotiations, an active capital flow in international markets and a slowdown in international oil prices. First, the world economy is moderate