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经济开发区是地方经济活动开展的集中区域,电是安全生产、征地拆迁、交通事故等突发事件较为频繁发生的区域。完善的应急预案能有效地提高应急决策的准确性,对区域内潜在突发事件进行风险评估是建立预案的基础。本论文突破了风险仅是一种纯粹客观的独立于行为人的事件或对象的局限性,建立了全新的突发事件风险评估指标体系,即在突发事件发生概率和后果严重程度这两个传统的维度上,从政府应急能力出发,增加了控制的难易程度这一维度,建立了我国经济开发区潜在突发事件的风险度评估模型。针对潜在突发事件风险评价中专家评判信息的模糊性与灰色性,建立一种基于灰色模糊的风险综合评价方法来衡量各种潜在突发事件的风险度大小。采用灰色模糊方法能有效减少评估中人为因素的影响,使评估结果更具客观性、公正性和科学性。通过对某国家级高新区的实证分析显示,该风险度评估方法可靠并易于操作,评估结果可以帮助应急管理部门有针对性地制定预案,对风险度大的突发事件投入更多的资源,从而降低应急决策的不确定性。
Economic development zones are the concentrated areas where local economic activities are carried out. Electricity is an area where emergencies such as production safety, land acquisition and house demolition and traffic accidents occur frequently. A sound contingency plan can effectively improve the accuracy of emergency decision-making, and the risk assessment of potential emergencies in the region is the basis for establishing a plan. This paper broke through the risk is only a purely objective and independent of the actors or the limitations of the object, the establishment of a new index system of risk assessment of emergencies, that is, the probability of emergencies and the severity of the consequences of these two In the traditional dimension, starting from the government emergency response capability, the dimension of difficulty of control is increased, and the risk assessment model of potential emergencies in the economic development zone of our country is established. Aiming at the fuzziness and grayness of the expert judgment information in the risk assessment of potential emergencies, a comprehensive risk assessment method based on gray fuzzy is established to measure the risk degree of various potential emergencies. The use of gray fuzzy method can effectively reduce the impact of human factors in the assessment, making the assessment results more objective, fair and scientific. The empirical analysis of a national high-tech zone shows that the risk assessment method is reliable and easy to operate. The assessment results can help the emergency management department to formulate plans in a targeted manner and devote more resources to unexpectedly high-risk incidents. Thus reducing the uncertainty of emergency decision-making.