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通过监测泳季大连海水浴场中指示细菌——肠球菌浓度,应用定量微生物风险评价(Quantitative microbial risk assessment,QMRA)评估游泳人群患胃肠道疾病的潜在风险.结果显示,旅游季节大连市内海水浴场男人、女人和儿童的风险分别为24.09‰、17.46‰和29.76‰,其中男人和儿童的娱乐风险已经超出了EPA规定的可接受日娱乐风险(19‰).涨潮、降雨12 h内、游泳人群过于密集都将增加海水浴场娱乐者的潜在娱乐健康风险,涨潮情况下潜在感染风险约为落潮的8倍,雨后3种人群的平均潜在感染风险约为雨前的20倍.因此有必要进行海水浴场的人体健康风险评估工作,本研究可为未来海水浴场健康风险预测和有效管理提供研究基础和科学依据.
By monitoring the concentration of bacteria-enterococci in the Dalian Bathing Beach during the swimming season, the potential risk of gastrointestinal diseases in swimming population was assessed using Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) .The results showed that during the tourist season, The risks for men, women and children in bathing beaches are 24.09 ‰, 17.46 ‰ and 29.76 ‰, respectively, of which men’s and children’s entertainment risks have exceeded the acceptable daily entertainment risk (19 ‰) set by the EPA. Crowds are likely to increase the potential recreational health risks for beach entertainers. The risk of potential infection during high tide is about 8 times of that of low tide, and the average risk of potential infection among the three groups after rain is about 20 times higher than that before rain. To carry out the risk assessment of human health in the beach, this study can provide the research foundation and scientific basis for the prediction and effective management of the health risks in the future beach.