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灰色预测模型具有对数据要求不高,却对中短期预测精度较高、效果较好的特点,其应用范围十分广泛.根据2010-2014年广西海洋经济相关数据,建立广西海洋经济增加值的灰色模型并进行检验,证明了模型可用,并对广西海洋经济增加值进行了预测.通过对比预测值与初始值数据,发现海洋科研教育管理服务业增加值与广西海洋生产增加值增长并不相匹配,增加值增加速度慢于广西海洋生产增加值,说明了广西在吸引海洋经济人才、资金、技术等时,对相应的海洋科研教育管理服务业的重视不够;同时,海洋矿业、海洋盐业、海洋船舶工业、海洋生物医药、海洋电力业、海水利用业比重占主要海洋产业增加值比重非常小,无论是绝对数量,还是相对比例,都与广西海洋经济快速发展态势不相匹配,最后给出了结论与建议.
Gray forecasting model has the characteristics of low data requirements but high accuracy in the short and medium term and good effect, and its application is very broad.According to the data of Guangxi marine economy from 2010 to 2014, gray value of the marine economic value of Guangxi Model and tested to prove that the model is available and predicted the added value of Guangxi marine economy.By comparing the predicted value and the initial value data, it is found that the added value of marine scientific research education, management and service industry does not match with the growth of added value of marine production in Guangxi , The increment of added value is slower than the added value of marine production in Guangxi, indicating that Guangxi did not pay enough attention to the corresponding marine scientific research, education and management service industry while attracting marine economic talents, capital and technology. At the same time, marine mining, marine salt industry, The proportion of marine marine industry, marine biomedicine, marine power industry and sea water use industry in the proportion of the added value of major marine industries is very small, both in absolute terms and in relative proportions, which are incompatible with the rapid development of marine economy in Guangxi and are finally given Conclusion and suggestion.