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针对导弹研制过程中技术风险难以量化评估、风险管理困难的问题,从风险事件的发生概率和后果影响两方面对技术风险进行了分析研究。结合风险因子的概念,利用风险因子及其要素对技术风险事件进行评价。通过对风险因子的分析,对评价集进行量级划分,建立了风险评价标准。对不同风险事件或子系统赋予不同的权重系数,通过专家打分的方式,对基本风险事件进行评价,并逐层计算风险值,最后对导弹研制阶段技术风险做出综合评估。根据风险的综合评估结果,可以对风险进行等级划分,为技术风险的处理和监控奠定了基础。运用特征因子方法对导弹研制的技术风险进行评估,验证了该方法的正确性、实用性和可操作性。
Aiming at the problem that the technical risk is difficult to quantify and the risk management is difficult in the process of missile development, the technical risk is analyzed and studied from the probability of occurrence of the risk event and the consequence and consequence. Combined with the concept of risk factors, the risk factors and their elements are used to evaluate the technology risk events. Through the analysis of risk factors, the evaluation set is divided by magnitude, and the risk evaluation standard is established. Different risk events or subsystems are given different weighting factors. The expert scoring method is used to evaluate the basic risk events, and the risk values are calculated layer by layer. Finally, the comprehensive assessment of the technical risks in the missile development phase is made. According to the results of the comprehensive assessment of risk, the risk can be divided into different levels, laying the foundation for the handling and monitoring of technical risks. The method of feature factor was used to evaluate the technical risk of missile development. The correctness, practicability and operability of the method were verified.