利用水分与小麦生长关系的模拟模式，估算了气候变暖后小麦不同发育阶段农田蒸散量的可能变化及其对产量的影响。结果表明，温度升高时小麦生长中后期实际蒸腾量和总蒸散量明显减少，将导致干物质下降，产量减少，产值降低，并需额外增加灌溉，从而使农业生产费用增加。 Using the simulation model of the relationship between water and wheat growth, the possible changes of farmland evapotranspiration at different developmental stages after climate warming and their effects on the yield were estimated. The results showed that the actual transpiration and total evapotranspiration in the middle and late stages of wheat growth decreased obviously with the increase of temperature, which led to the decrease of dry matter, the decrease of the yield, the decrease of the output value and the additional irrigation, so that the agricultural production cost was increased.