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在信息多元化和行为异质化的不确定性世界中,对未来未知事件的估计和准确预测对于个人和组织至关重要。大量证据表明,预测市场机制作为区别于传统预测工具的一种新型预测方法有着惊人的预测能力。预测市场机制的研究对推进经济理论发展和推广实践应用都有重要意义。一方面预测市场验证了市场汇聚分散信息、传播信息和处理信息的能力,另一方面,预测市场为市场监管部门和市场运行主体提供了一种全新的信息收集方式。
In an uncertain world of information pluralism and behavioral heterogeneity, the estimation and accurate prediction of unknown events in the future are of crucial importance to individuals and organizations. There is ample evidence that predicting market mechanisms has astonishing predictive power as a new type of forecasting method that is distinct from traditional forecasting tools. It is of great significance to study the market mechanism to promote the development of economic theory and promote the practical application. On the one hand, it predicts that the market verifies the ability of the market to gather and disperse information, disseminate information and process information. On the other hand, the forecast market provides a brand new way of information collection for market regulators and market operators.