在我看来,日本经济的迅猛增长完全是拜中国所赐。在2000-2003年之间,日本的名义GDP下降了13.3万亿日元,而日本的出口总量上升了2.9万亿日元,其中对中国的出口增长达3.3万亿日元。中国需求的高速增长引发了日本资本支出的复苏。日本的消费恢复得益于前两者产生的收入效应。在过去的四个季度,这种动力已经使日本名义GDP增长了2.2%。随着中国投资周期进入下降通道,日本将受到深刻影响。日本的通货膨胀只是受到中国投资周期辐射的反映。我认为,随着中国投资周期进入下降通道,日本很可能会再次陷入通货紧缩。中国快速的信贷扩张是亚洲大多数国家GDP增长的资金来源,我认为日本也不例外。但我东京的同事Robert Feldman和Takehiro Sota对 In my opinion, Japan’s rapid economic growth is entirely thanks to China. Between 2000 and 2003, Japan’s nominal GDP dropped by 13.3 trillion yen while Japan’s total exports rose by 2.9 trillion yen, of which exports to China grew by 3.3 trillion yen. The rapid growth of China’s demand has triggered a recovery in Japan’s capital expenditures. Japan’s consumption recovery benefited from the income effect of the first two. In the past four quarters, this momentum has caused Japan’s nominal GDP to grow by 2.2%. Japan will be profoundly affected as China’s investment cycle enters a downward spiral. Japan’s inflation is only reflected by China’s investment cycle radiation. I think Japan will likely fall into deflation again as China’s investment cycle goes down. China’s rapid credit expansion is the source of funding for GDP growth in most Asian countries, and I think Japan is no exception. But my Tokyo colleagues Robert Feldman and Takehiro Sota are right