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春节假期后,因为新版国八条调控导致的置业淡季已明显开始。包括北京、深圳等地,新建商品房、二手房成交,都出现了不同程度的下降;而各地落实国八条细则,这也加剧了市场的观望态势。易居中国、世联地产等各大代理行人士普遍预期今年的楼市成交将大幅下滑,近期市场将速冻,行业进入全面调整期。不过成交清淡是否会带来价格的下跌,各界看法不一。短期来看,1月CPI依然高达4.9%,通胀压力继续存在,楼市供应量也还未大幅增长,房价向下调整的压力不大;但从全年来看,房价下跌预期正在形成。
After the Spring Festival holiday, the off-season of home buyers has clearly begun because of the eight new national regulations. Including Beijing, Shenzhen and other places, new commercial housing, second-hand housing transactions, have shown varying degrees of decline; and the implementation of the eight states throughout the rules, which also exacerbated the market wait and see situation. Eurex China, World Real Estate and other major agencies generally expect this year’s property market turnover will plunge, the recent market will freeze, the industry into a full adjustment period. However, whether the transaction will bring the price decline, different views. In the short term, the January CPI is still as high as 4.9%. Inflationary pressures continue to exist. Property supply has not yet risen sharply. There is not much downward pressure on house prices. However, housing prices are expected to fall in the full year.