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本项研究以计算机模拟技术和系统分析法,分析了宁夏黄河流域玉米螟发生与耕作制度、栽培条件、气侯、天敌、品种等环境因素的相互关系,以及与玉米受害的产量损失关系,建立了14个关系模式,组建成玉米螟发生量预报系统模型。本模型能根据所提供资料,向领导机关提供发生趋势预报,向技术部门提供技术指导预报,向农民提供防治及产量收益预算的预报,有5种防治方案供农民选用。验证吻合率达90%。
This study analyzed the relationship between the occurrence and the tillage system, cultivation conditions, climate, natural enemies, varieties and other environmental factors in the Yellow River valley of Ningxia and the relationship between yield loss and maize damage through computer simulation and systematic analysis. Fourteen relational models were established to establish a model for predicting the occurrence of corn borer. Based on the information provided, this model can provide leading agencies with trend forecasts, provide technical guidance and forecast to technical departments, and provide farmers with forecast of prevention and control of yield and yield. There are five kinds of control programs for farmers to choose from. Verify the anastomosis rate of 90%.