过分引用历史来比拟现在是危险的。然而,历史十分引人深思,它遗下一个严肃的问题。经济自1929年以来必定改变了,可是人性呢? 美国人知道今天的经济好景有一天将会终结,因为所有繁荣期均如此。然而,相信它会历久不衰的信念几乎与日俱增。股市与信心指数可以印证。会有过类似的事情吗?二十年代如何?当然,提起这个看来不合乎社会情理.它引起另一个经济大萧条的恐惧联想。自然.情形未必如此;但仔细回顾是有启发性的;我们会得到起码两个重要启示:人们的头脑确可被冲昏;今天的经济或许有不为人注意的弱点。二十年代和九十年代相似之处多不胜数。那时 Excessive reference to history is more dangerous than it is now. However, history is very thought-provoking, leaving behind a serious issue. The economy has certainly changed since 1929, but humanity? Americans know that today’s economic good will one day come to an end because of all the boom. However, the belief that it will last forever increases almost daily. Stock market and confidence index can confirm. What happened in the 1920s? Of course, it seems outrageous to bring this in. It elicited another fear of the Great Depression. Naturally, the situation may not be the case, but a closer look is instructive; we get at least two important implications: People’s minds can indeed be drowsy; today’s economy may have unattended weaknesses. The similarities between the twenties and the nineties are endless. At that time