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1959年H Muench著书介绍了数学模型在流行病学研究中的应用后,国内外学者对数学模型的应用均有报道。本文试用可逆反应催化模型(reversible catalytic model)对两个人群乙型肝炎病毒(HBV)感染率的横断调查结果进行拟合,并以观察随访一年的结果加以验证,结果报告如下。材料与方法一、资料来源HBV感染率资料系作者报告的北京某医院17岁以上的464名工作人员(称A人群)及北京郊区某大队292名同龄社员(称B人群)1982年1～6月普查和1983
In 1959, H Muench wrote a book introducing the application of mathematical models in epidemiological studies. Both domestic and foreign scholars have reported on the application of mathematical models. In this study, the reversible catalytic model was used to fit the cross-sectional survey of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection rates in two populations and validated by observing the results of follow-up one year. The results are reported as follows. Materials and Methods I. Sources of Information The data of HBV infection rate were 464 staff members (referred to as “A” population) over the age of 17 in a hospital in Beijing and 292 peer members of a certain brigade in Beijing (referred to as “B” population) reported by the authors from 1982 to 2006 Monthly survey and 1983