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水稻纹枯病(Rhizoctonia Solani Kuhn)近年来在早稻上大流行,损失很大。因此在早稻纹枯病发生前,作出流行程度的预报,是植保工作的一项重要任务。该病系高温高湿型病害,温湿度综合地影响其发生发展。本文根据太湖县水稻病虫测报站8年积累的历史资料及气象部门的有关资料,利用条件频率法,对早稻纹枯病的流行程度进行了预测研究.一、资料筛选与分级:在确定了早稻纹枯病流行程度为预报量 Y(因变量)的前提下,将资料进行分析,筛选出3个预报因子(自变量)。即 X_1:头年10～12月份平均气温(℃);
Rhizoctonia Solani Kuhn has suffered a big loss in early rice in recent years. Therefore, before the occurrence of early rice sheath blight, make a forecast of the prevalence of plant protection is an important task. The disease is high temperature and humidity type disease, temperature and humidity affect its occurrence and development. Based on the historical data accumulated in the past eight years of rice pest and disease forecasting stations in Taihu County and relevant data of the meteorological department, this paper makes a prediction of the prevalence of early-rice sheath blight using the conditional frequency method.First, data screening and grading: The prevalence of early rice sheath blight was forecast Y (dependent variable) under the premise of the data analysis, screening out three predictors (independent variables). X_1: the average temperature of 10 ~ December in the first year (℃);