论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨夏季高温热浪对人群死亡风险的影响。方法收集杭州市2010—2014年6—10月全死因数据和逐日气温资料,比较不同性别、年龄、死因在高温热浪期与非高温热浪期的差异;构建分布滞后非线性模型,评估不同滞后天数下日平均温度对死亡风险的影响。结果不同年龄高温热浪期与非高温热浪期间死亡情况差异有统计学意义(P=0.002),其中≥75岁组死亡人数最多,占60.97%。温度和死亡风险(RR)之间存在非线性关系,日平均温度在35℃以上时,当天RR值随着温度的上升而逐渐升高,在40℃时取得最大值(RR=1.032),随着滞后天数的增加,RR值降低,存在一定的死亡移位效应。结论杭州市高温热浪可影响人群的死亡风险,并且产生的滞后影响存在一定的死亡移位效应。
Objective To explore the impact of summer heat wave on the death risk in the population. Methods The data of death cause and daily temperature from June to October in 2010-2014 in Hangzhou were collected to compare the differences of different sexes, ages and causes of death at high temperature and non-high temperature heat waves. A nonlinear model with distributed lag was constructed to evaluate the effect of different lag days Impact of next day’s average temperature on death risk. Results There were significant differences in deaths between high-temperature heat waves and non-high-temperature heat waves at different ages (P = 0.002), with the highest death rate at age ≥75 years, accounting for 60.97%. There was a nonlinear relationship between temperature and risk of death (RR). When the average daily temperature was above 35 ℃, the RR of the day increased gradually with the increase of temperature and reached the maximum at 40 ℃ (RR = 1.032) With the increase of lag days, the RR value decreases, and there is a certain death shift effect. Conclusion The high temperature heat wave in Hangzhou can affect the risk of death in the population, and there is a certain death shift effect due to the lagged effect.