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上世纪90年代以后,我国的经济波动发生了明显的变化,经济波动趋缓,无论是90年代以后的周期下行区间还是2000年开始的本轮经济周期的上行区间都明显延长且平缓。本文试图从制度变迁引起周期自身的波动机理发生变化的角度解释这一变化的原因,发现改革前后由于经济制度发生变化,经济周期自身的乘数-加速数作用机制、产业关联机制、上下限缓冲机制发生重大变化是经济波动微波化趋势的主要原因所在。
Since the 1990s, the economic fluctuations in our country have undergone obvious changes. The economic fluctuations have slowed down. Both the downward period after the 1990s or the upward period under the current round of economic cycles started in 2000 have been significantly prolonged and moderate. This paper tries to explain the reason of this change from the point of view of the change of the periodic fluctuation mechanism caused by the institutional change. It is found that the change of the economic system before and after the reform, the multiplier of the economic cycle - the mechanism of acceleration, the mechanism of industrial association, Significant changes in the mechanism is the main reason for the trend of economic fluctuations.