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文章对一国经济发展滞于中等收入陷阱的形成原因进行梳理归纳,认为其成因主要可分为生产率下滑假说、增长转型失败假说及收入分配状况恶化假说。在理论假设基础上,对部分成功跨越与未能成功跨越中等收入陷阱的国家发展经验进行比较,发现在生产率差异、收入分配差距差异、产业结构转型差异及技术创新能力差异等维度,两类国家均呈现出明显不同。文章认为,中国经济进入人均国民收入超4000美元的中高等收入阶段后,经济增长也面临成本上升、收入分配差距恶化及转型困难等增长减速风险,并提出了对应的政策建议。
The paper sorts out the reason why a country’s economy lags behind the middle-income trap, and concludes that its causes can be mainly divided into the hypothesis of productivity decline, the failure of growth and transformation hypothesis, and the deterioration of income distribution. Based on the theoretical assumptions, we compared the successful experiences of some countries in their successful development across the middle-income trap and found that in the two dimensions of productivity differences, differences in income distribution gap, differences in industrial restructuring and differences in technological innovation capability, All showed obvious differences. The article holds that after China’s economy has entered the middle-high income stage with a per capita income of over 4,000 U.S. dollars, the economy is also facing the risk of growth and deceleration such as rising costs, deteriorating income distribution gap and difficulties in transition, and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions.