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从蒸汽机、到内燃机、再到电动发动机的转换是人类社会发展的必然趋势。从中短期来看(2035年前),低污染发动机仍将占据主流的市场地位;从长期来看(2035年后),电动发动机将占据主流的市场地位。主流市场地位的转换速度主要取决于计算机、自动控制与电力电子等信息技术和纳米材料等新材料技术的发展速度。上述时间的判断主要基于如下几条理由:(1)作为混合动力汽车技术的领先者,日本丰田汽车公司从1997年推出Prius至今已经累计12年的时间,其技术才真正成熟,获得市场的认可;而纯电动汽车的技术难度实际上是远高于传统混合动
From the steam engine, to the internal combustion engine, and then the conversion of electric engines is the inevitable trend of development of human society. In the short to medium term (before 2035), low-pollution engines will still dominate the market; in the long run (after 2035), electric motors will dominate the market. The conversion rate of the mainstream market position mainly depends on the computer, automatic control and power electronics and other information technology and nanomaterials and other new material technology development. Judgment of the above time is mainly based on the following reasons: (1) As a leader in hybrid vehicle technology, Toyota Motor Corporation of Japan has accumulated a total of 12 years since its launch in 1997, and its technology has truly matured and gained market recognition ; While the technical difficulty of pure electric vehicles is actually much higher than the traditional hybrid