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一、东亚金融危机对香港经济提出严重挑战,受其冲击香港进入经济调整期。香港回归伊始,从东南亚国家开始的东亚金融危机随即爆发,香港不但未能幸免,反而一度成为金融风暴冲击的重点地区。在金融风暴打击下,港元与美元之间的联系汇率数次受到冲击,随后在特区政府提高利率确保联系汇率的过程中,香港股市大幅下降,房地产价格快速回落。接着又出现企业破产增加,失业人数上升,经济增长速度下调。从经济增长率来看,回归1年的香港经济增长率持续下降,1997年第四季降为2.7％,低于全年平均增长率(5.3％);1998年首季则出现13年来的首次负增长(-2％),使得人们普遍认为香港经济已进入调整期。在以股市和楼市为代表的资产价格方面,与1997年的最高水平相比,股市下降50％以上,楼市下跌幅度也已达到40％左右。与此同时,香港失业率上升,破产企业增加,市场消费不振。 更为严重的是,东亚金融危机还进一步暴露出香港经济自身存在的深层问题,其中主要是香港经济转型后的经济结构和未来发展路向。 回顾1年来的香港经济走势,我们认为主要受以下四个因素的影响。一是经济周期性调整的压力。香港经济一直呈现出较为明显的周期波动规律,短期而言大致3年左右面临一次周期性调整压力。按此规律推测,香港经济于1995年下半年出现?
First, the East Asian financial crisis poses a serious challenge to the economy of Hong Kong and its impact on Hong Kong has entered a period of economic readjustment. At the beginning of Hong Kong’s return to the motherland, the East Asia financial crisis started immediately from Southeast Asian countries. Not only was Hong Kong not spared, but it was once a key area hit by the financial turmoil. In the aftermath of the financial turmoil, the linked exchange rate between the Hong Kong dollar and the U.S. dollar was hit several times. In the course of the SAR government raising the interest rate and ensuring the linked exchange rate, the stock market in Hong Kong dropped sharply and the real estate price dropped rapidly. Then there was an increase in corporate bankruptcies, an increase in the number of unemployed people and a decrease in the rate of economic growth. Judging from the economic growth rate, the economic growth rate of Hong Kong, which returned to the first year after its reunification, has continued to decline. It dropped to 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 1997, lower than the average annual growth rate (5.3%). For the first time in 1998, Hong Kong’s economic growth rate for the first time in 13 years Negative growth (-2%) made it widely believed that Hong Kong’s economy has entered a period of adjustment. In terms of asset prices represented by the stock market and the property market, the stock market dropped by more than 50% compared with the highest level in 1997 and the property market dropped by about 40%. At the same time, the unemployment rate in Hong Kong has risen, the number of bankrupt enterprises has increased, and the consumption in the market has been sluggish. What is more serious is that the East Asian financial crisis has further exposed the deep-rooted problems of Hong Kong’s economy itself. The main one is the economic structure of Hong Kong’s economy and its future development. Looking back at the Hong Kong economy in the past year, we think it is mainly affected by the following four factors. First, the pressure of economic cyclical adjustment. Hong Kong’s economy has been showing more obvious cyclical fluctuations in the short term about a period of about 3 years to face a cyclical adjustment pressure. According to this law, Hong Kong economy appeared in the second half of 1995?