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目的预测某军区某部细菌性痢疾(以下简称菌痢)的流行趋势,为制定防治对策提供参考依据。方法运用Excel软件对某部2001—2009年的菌痢发病率进行二次多项式拟合,并根据所建立的预测方程对2010年的菌痢发病进行外推预测,分析其变化趋势。结果建立的某军区某部2001—2009年的菌痢发病预测模型为:Y=0.138 9 X2-3.191 1 X+21.073,决定系数R2为0.937 8,模型拟合效果良好。结论某部近年来的菌痢发病呈逐年下降趋势,预计2010年的菌痢发病率为3.052/10万。
Objective To predict the prevalence of bacillary dysentery (hereinafter referred to as bacillary dysentery) in a certain military region and provide a reference for the formulation of control measures. Methods The incidence of dysentery in a certain department from 2001 to 2009 was fitted with the second-order polynomial using Excel software. According to the established prediction equation, the incidence of dysentery in 2010 was estimated by extrapolation, and the trend was analyzed. Results The prediction model of dysentery incidence in a certain military region from 2001 to 2009 was Y = 0.138 9 X2-3.191 1 X + 21.073, the determination coefficient R2 was 0.937 8, and the model fitting effect was good. Conclusions The incidence of dysentery in some departments has been declining year by year. The incidence of dysentery in 2010 is estimated to be 3.052 / 100000.