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[目的]通过分析上海市感染性腹泻发病情况与气象要素的关系,建立感染性腹泻病的气象预报模式。[方法]收集上海市2002—2008年逐日感染性腹泻发病数和同期气象资料,分析气象因素与感染性腹泻发病的关系,采用时间序列的广义相加模型,建立感染性腹泻预测模型,利用2009—2010年逐日报告确诊的感染性腹泻病例和逐日气象数据检验模型的预测效果。根据验证结果,提出感染性腹泻病的预测预警应用。[结果]所建立的感染性腹泻预测模型对发病趋势拟合符合率为66.43%,对流行季节(5月至10月)拟合符合率为77.23%。形成腹泻指数并运用其开展相应的防病提示。[结论]感染性腹泻病的气象预报模式可较好地为上海市提供肠道传染病预警服务,为疾病预防控制部门传染病防控提供科学依据。
[Objective] To establish a weather forecasting model of infectious diarrhea by analyzing the relationship between the incidence of infectious diarrhea and meteorological factors in Shanghai. [Methods] The incidence of infectious diarrhea and the meteorological data in the same period of 2002-2008 in Shanghai were collected. The relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of infectious diarrhea was analyzed. The generalized additive model of time series was used to establish the infectious diarrhea prediction model. - 2010 daily report confirmed cases of infectious diarrhea and daily meteorological data test model predictive effect. According to the verification results, the paper puts forward the application of forecasting and warning of infectious diarrhea. [Results] The established infectious diarrhea prediction model fitted the incidence rate of 66.43% to the incidence trend, and fitted the rate of 77.23% to the epidemic season (May to October). The formation of diarrhea index and use it to carry out the corresponding anti-disease tips. [Conclusion] The meteorological forecasting model of infectious diarrheal disease can provide early warning service of intestinal infectious diseases in Shanghai and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases in disease prevention and control departments.