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针对服务业领域节能减排研究的不足,基于IPCC温室气体排放清单指南中的碳排放因子与核算方法,核算了1995—2010年中国服务业能源消费和CO2排放量;运用脱钩理论、ADF单位根检验、协整分析以及Granger因果关系检验,辨识和分析了服务业经济增长与能源消费、CO2排放之间的耦合关系。研究表明:从能源消费结构和CO2排放量变动趋势上看,服务业能源消费主要依赖于石油、煤炭等高碳化能源燃料,CO2排放量总体上呈现上升态势;Tapio脱钩分析结果显示,服务业能源消费、CO2排放量与增加值之间的脱钩状况总体上呈现出逐步好转的态势,但仍有超过1/2的年份为扩张连结和扩张负脱钩状态,其脱钩状况亟需改善;协整分析结果显示,服务业存在从经济增长到能源消费、CO2排放的单向Granger因果关系。最后,就中国服务业能源消费CO2排放的调控重点、调控手段与调控方向等提出了相应的对策建议。
Aiming at the insufficiency of energy conservation and emission reduction in the service sector, based on the carbon emission factor and accounting method in the IPCC Greenhouse Gas Inventory Guideline, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of China’s service industry from 1995 to 2010 were calculated. Using the theory of decoupling, Test, co-integration analysis and Granger causality test, identify and analyze the coupling between economic growth in service industry and energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The results show that: from the energy consumption structure and the trend of CO2 emissions, energy consumption in service industry mainly relies on high-carbon energy fuels such as oil and coal, and CO2 emissions are generally on the rise; Tapio decoupling analysis shows that service energy Consumption, the situation of decoupling between the amount of CO2 emissions and the added value generally shows a gradual improvement. However, there are still more than one half of the year in which decoupling of expansion and expansion is decoupled and the situation of decoupling needs to be improved urgently. Cointegration analysis The result shows that the service industry has one-way Granger causality from economic growth to energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Finally, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward on the regulation and control of CO2 emissions from energy consumption in China’s service industries, the means of regulation and control, and the direction of regulation and control.