政府与经济周期大约10年前,一种普遍的观点认为,经济学家对于如何缓解经济周期波动问题已经有了答案,或者至少知道如何找到答案。但目前,这种看法已极大地动摇了。先前的乐观情绪主要由于相当令人满意地完成了那项与凯恩斯革命有关的研究课题。但由于两方面的事实使经济理论的威力和经济专家们的良好动机失去了人们的信任。首先,那些用来预测经济周期变化的经济模型未能达到其设计者和使用者的预期目的;其次,政府基本上无法保证其缓和经济周期的能力。盛行 Government and the Business Cycle About 10 years ago, a common view was that economists already had an answer to the question of how to mitigate the volatility of the business cycle, or at least know how to find the answer. But at the moment, that perception has shaken a great deal. The previous optimism was mainly due to the quite satisfactory completion of that Keynesian revolution related research topic. However, due to two facts, the power of economic theory and the good motives of economic experts have lost their trust. First, those economic models used to predict changes in the economic cycle fail to meet the intended purpose of their designers and users; secondly, the government is largely unable to guarantee its ability to moderate the economic cycle. Popular