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目的探讨时间序列ARIMA模型在浙江省甲型病毒性肝炎疫情预警应用中的可行性。方法利用EViews5.0、SPSS13.0等统计软件对历年疫情资料汇编,《国家疾病报告管理信息系统》报告的浙江省甲肝按月发病数建立ARIMA模型。结果对甲肝发病数序列建立季节模型为ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12,对2009年甲肝按月发病疫情拟合较好,能够及时、准确对疫情进行跟踪。结论 ARIMA模型能够较好应用于短期甲肝预测、预警,为疫情防控提供科学依据。
Objective To investigate the feasibility of time series ARIMA model in early warning application of epidemic situation of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province. Methods The ARIMA model was established based on EViews5.0, SPSS13.0 and other statistical software for the compilation of epidemic data over the years and the monthly incidence of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province reported by the National Disease Reporting Management Information System. Results The seasonal model of the incidence of hepatitis A was ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1) 12. The monthly incidence of hepatitis A in 2009 was better fitted and the epidemic situation could be followed timely and accurately. Conclusion ARIMA model can be better applied to short-term prediction and early warning of hepatitis A, providing a scientific basis for prevention and control of epidemic situation.