随着发达经济体增速放缓,人们对发展中国家和新兴经济体寄予越来越多的厚望。在过去十年中,这些经济体的平均增速(以人均GDP增速来看)大概是发达国家的两倍。但是,本文认为,对这些国家的大部分预测都过于乐观了,并且随着预测时间的拉长,乐观程度也在放大。错误的预测不但会损害跨国公司的利润、国际投资者的回报,还会扭曲宏观经济政策的制定。 With the slowdown in developed economies, there is increasing expectation from developing countries and emerging economies. In the past decade, the average growth rate of these economies (in terms of GDP per capita growth rate) is about twice that of developed countries. However, the paper argues that most of the projections for these countries are overly optimistic, and the optimism is also magnified as the forecast time lengthens. Wrong predictions not only undermine the profits of transnational corporations, the returns of international investors, but also distort the formulation of macroeconomic policies.