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本文基于随机前沿生产函数模型,利用1988—2010年江苏省8个地区的水稻投入产出及气候数据,分析了气候变化视角下水稻生产技术效率的时空分布,探讨了气候因子对效率变动的影响。结果显示,气候因素对江苏地区水稻生产技术效率呈现不同的影响效果,年际差异系数变化较大,常州表现最为明显;地区差异系数具有波动性。6、8、9月份的光温比、7月份的降水对水稻生产技术效率有提升作用,而7月平均温度和光温比对水稻生产技术效率有抑制作用。
Based on the stochastic frontier production function model and using the input and output of rice and climate data in eight regions of Jiangsu Province during 1988-2010, the spatial and temporal distribution of rice production efficiency under climate change was analyzed and the effect of climatic factors on the efficiency was also discussed . The results showed that the climatic factors had different effects on the technical efficiency of rice production in Jiangsu Province, with significant changes in the annual variation coefficient, and the most obvious in Changzhou. The regional differences coefficient was volatile. The light and temperature ratios in June, August and September and precipitation in July increased the technical efficiency of rice production, while the average temperature and light / temperature ratio in July inhibited the technical efficiency of rice production.