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为研究CO2捕集与封存技术(CCS,carbon captureand storage)和风电、太阳能发电技术未来成本变化,该文利用年限平均法计算了不同技术的发电成本及构成;在对不同发电技术未来装机容量合理假设的基础上,利用学习曲线模型分析了中国光伏和风电技术的学习率,并分析了其未来发电成本的变化以及达到商业化所需要的社会投入成本;在分析CCS电站时,利用自下而上的方法,将捕集电站分解为不同的子系统,考察了其未来的发展。研究结果表明:风电技术为近期首选的减排技术,而光伏发电技术在长期具备竞争力;如果EOR(enhanced oil recovery)技术能够大规模推广,CCS技术也将具备充分的竞争力。
In order to study the future costs of CCS (carbon capture and storage) and wind power and solar power generation technologies, this paper calculates the generation cost and composition of different technologies by the average-annual method. In the future, Based on the assumptions, the learning curve model is used to analyze the learning rate of photovoltaic and wind power technologies in China. The changes of future generation costs and the social input costs for commercialization are also analyzed. In the analysis of CCS power plants, On the approach, the capture station will be decomposed into different subsystems, examining its future development. The results show that wind power technology is the preferred emission reduction technology in the near future, and photovoltaic power generation technology has long-term competitiveness. If enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technology can be widely promoted, CCS technology will also be fully competitive.