论文部分内容阅读
在航天器发射工程中,存在组织过程可靠性评估难以量化的问题。基于航天器发射组织过程的时间特性呈现多个子过程并发执行且子过程具有Markov性和齐次性的特点,使用连续时间Markov链(CTMC)建立多吸收态的组织过程可靠度模型,利用互模拟等价关系(BER)简化组织过程的状态空间,并进一步给出各种状态转移率和组织过程可靠度计算方法。最后,通过数据分析说明模型在航天器发射工程进度计划评估中的作用和意义。
In spacecraft launching projects, there is a problem that it is difficult to quantify the reliability of the organizational process. Based on the time characteristics of the launch process of the spacecraft, the process of multiple subprocesses is executed concurrently and the subprocesses have Markov property and homogeneity. The continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) is used to establish the tissue process reliability model with multiple absorption states. The equivalence relation (BER) simplifies the state space of the organizational process and further gives various state transfer rates and organizational process reliability calculations. Finally, the role and significance of the model in the evaluation of the schedule of a spacecraft launch project are illustrated through data analysis.