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为了定量分析并划分水上交通流的复杂性等级,提出了一种基于Lempel-Ziv算法与TOPSIS的水上交通流复杂性测度方法。运用Lempel-Ziv算法求得实测水上交通流时间序列和对比序列(周期序列、Logistic序列、Henon序列、随机序列)的复杂性特征值,采用TOPSIS得到各个序列的贴近度,根据对比序列的贴近度划分复杂性等级区间,按照水上交通流时间序列的贴近度和所在的复杂性等级区间来表征各个序列的复杂程度,并对长江口南槽航道的实测水上交通流进行复杂性测度。计算结果表明:船舶交通事故数量和下行标准船舶数量与船舶交通流时序复杂性贴近度的相关系数分别为0.698 1、0.769 2,变化趋势基本一致,表明贴近度的计算结果可以反映水域船舶交通流的复杂性;周期序列的贴近度为0.000 1,随机序列的贴近度为0.999 9,Logistic序列和Henon序列的贴近度分别为0.449 2、0.537 7,其值大于周期序列的贴近度,小于随机序列的贴近度;2013年7~11月水上交通流序列的贴近度分别为0.828 0、0.852 7、0.856 5、0.823 7、0.810 7,说明序列的复杂性基本一致;5个月的水上交通流序列的贴近度远大于周期序列的贴近度,处于随机序列和Henon序列的贴近度之间,更接近随机序列的贴近度,说明水上交通流系统不是周期与完全随机的动力学系统;5个月水上交通流复杂性的整体等级为1级,表现出高复杂性的特点。
In order to quantitatively analyze and classify the complexity level of water traffic flow, a measure method of water traffic flow complexity based on Lempel-Ziv algorithm and TOPSIS is proposed. Using the Lempel-Ziv algorithm to calculate the complex eigenvalues of the measured time series and the comparative series (cyclic series, Logistic series, Henon series, random series) of the measured water traffic flow, TOPSIS is used to obtain the closeness of each series. According to the closeness of the comparison series According to the closeness of the time series of water traffic flow and the complexity level interval, the complexity of each sequence is characterized, and the complexity of the measured water traffic flow in the south channel of the Yangtze Estuary is measured. The calculation results show that the correlation coefficients between the number of ship accidents and the number of ships with standard downgrading and the temporal complexity of traffic flow of ships are 0.698 and 0.7692, respectively. The trend of change is basically the same, which shows that the calculated results of close degree can reflect the traffic flow The close degree of periodic sequence is 0.000 1, the closeness of random sequence is 0.999 9, the close degree between Logistic sequence and Henon sequence is 0.449 2, 0.537 7, respectively, which is greater than the closeness of periodic sequence and less than the random sequence The close degree of the sequence of the water traffic flow from July to November in 2013 was 0.828 0,0.852 7,0.856 5,0.823 7,0.810 7 respectively, indicating that the complexity of the sequence is basically the same. The five-month water traffic sequence Is closer to the closeness of the periodic sequence and closer to the closeness of the random sequence to the Henon sequence, which is closer to the closeness of the random sequence, indicating that the water traffic flow system is not a periodic and completely random dynamic system; The overall level of traffic flow complexity is level 1, showing the characteristics of high complexity.