论文部分内容阅读
1992年以来新哈贸易与哈国经济齐头并进且增速迅猛,彰显了新疆向西发展的潜力。量化研究它们之间的影响关系,探寻新哈贸易增长规律和本质,有利于新哈经济社会稳定发展。本文在VAR(2)模型基础上,运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解进行动态实证分析,结果发现新疆对哈萨克斯坦的进出口与哈国经济增长存在协整关系,新疆对哈出口拉动哈萨克斯坦经济发展。最后,基于所得结论对新疆提出了深化新哈贸易合作的建议。
Since 1992, the trade between Kazakhstan and Kazakhstan has grown rapidly and witnessed the rapid growth of economy, demonstrating the potential of developing westward in Xinjiang. To study quantitatively the relationship between them and to explore the law and nature of trade growth in New Kazakhstan will be conducive to the stable development of the new Kazakhstan economy and society. Based on the VAR (2) model, the paper uses the impulse response function and the forecast variance decomposition to make a dynamic empirical analysis. The result shows that there is a cointegration relationship between Xinjiang’s import and export in Kazakhstan and the economic growth in Kazakhstan. Xinjiang’s export to Kazakhstan pulls Kazakhstan’s economy development of. Finally, based on the conclusions drawn, Xinjiang proposed to deepen the trade cooperation between Kazakhstan and Kazakhstan.