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以上海市历年来番茄与茄子的上市量为基本信息,选用龚帕茨(B.Gompertz)曲线和对数正态分布函数(Logarithmic normal distribution function)作为这二种蔬菜上市趋势的数学模型,进行曲线拟合,先调用上海市农业科学院测试中心的SAMR农业气象资料数据库所存贮的气象数据,筛选与该蔬菜产量有密切相关的气象因子,再用多元回归方法对初选因子作进一步的筛选,从而估计出分布函数的有关参数。拟合、回报和预测的结果表明:用该模式来表达这二种蔬菜的上市趋势,其误差符合要求,是可行的。
Taking the listing volume of tomato and eggplant over the years in Shanghai as the basic information, we chose B.Gompertz curve and Logarithmic normal distribution function as the mathematic model of the market trend of these two kinds of vegetables Curve fitting, first call the Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences SAMR agricultural meteorological data stored in the database of meteorological data to screen out the meteorological factors closely related to the yield of vegetables, and then the multivariate regression method for further screening of primary factors , Thus estimating the distribution function of the relevant parameters. Fitting, return and forecast results show that: using this model to express the market trend of these two vegetables, the error in line with the requirements is feasible.