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利用漳州1954—1985共32年的4月1日至5月10目的降水资料,分别采用传染分布和泊松分布分两个时段计算该地区荔枝花期干、湿日持续日数和日雨量≥25mm的大～暴雨的频数。结果表明,理论频数的分布趋势与实际情况基本吻合,在r≤3下,4月21～5月10日时段的湿日频数小于4月1～20日时段的,说明荔枝开花太早遇连续湿日危害的机会较大。4月1～30日出现1次大～暴雨的概率最大,出现5次以上的概率极小。
Based on the precipitation data from April 1 to May 10 of Zhangzhou from 1954 to 1985 for 32 years, the distribution of infection and Poisson distribution were used to calculate the duration of dry and wet days and the daily rainfall of ≥25 mm in two flowering periods ~ The frequency of heavy rain. The results show that the distribution trend of the theoretical frequency basically agrees with the actual situation. Under the condition of r≤3, the wet day frequency of April 21 ~ May 10 is less than that of April 1 ~ 20, Wet day the greater the chance of harm. From April 1 to April 30, the probability of occurrence of a major rainstorm is the highest, and the probability of occurrence of more than 5 times is extremely small.